Monsoon information needs to be localized and applicable within the framework of India
India expects a normal southwest monsoon, which is essential for its agriculture, reliant on rain. However, national forecasts mask considerable local variations in rainfall that are exacerbated by global warming. Analyzing at the district level uncovers a fragmented scenario of both insufficient and excessive rainfall, with numerous tehsils in the Indo-Gangetic plains facing a reduction in rainfall, affecting agricultural productivity.
Introduction
India’s monsoon is not just a seasonal weather event; it is the lifeblood of the nation’s agriculture, water resources, and overall economy. Accounting for approximately 70% of the country’s annual rainfall, the southwest monsoon significantly influences agricultural productivity and water availability. However, national-level monsoon forecasts often mask the diverse and localized impacts of rainfall variability across India’s vast and varied geography. As climate change intensifies, the need for localized and actionable monsoon information becomes increasingly critical.
The Imperative for Localized Monsoon Data
National Averages Conceal Local Realities:Over the past four decades, India has experienced 29 normal, 8 above-normal, and 3 below-normal monsoon years. Yet, a district-level analysis reveals a more fragmented picture: approximately 30% of districts have faced frequent deficient rainfall years, while 38% have experienced excess rainfall. In the past decade, 11% of tehsils have seen a rainfall decline of more than 10% compared to baseline levels.
Agricultural Implications
The variability in monsoon patterns has profound effects on agriculture, especially in rain-fed regions. For instance, in Maharashtra’s Vidarbha and Marathwada regions, the monsoon onset has become delayed, followed by a break in rainfall during August, which is critical for crop development. Subsequently, heavy rains in September and October disrupt the harvest period.
Climate Change and Monsoon Variability
Intensified Weather Events: Climate change has led to more extreme and unpredictable monsoon patterns. In 2024, Himachal Pradesh experienced unprecedented rainfall, resulting in over $1.42 billion in property damage and 428 fatalities. Such events underscore the increasing volatility of monsoon seasons.
Regional Disparities: While the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported a 7.6% increase in overall rainfall in 2024, this average conceals regional disparities. States like Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra received excess rainfall, while others faced deficits, highlighting the need for localized data to understand and respond to these variations effectively.
Technological Advancements for Localization
Mission Mausam: India’s “Mission Mausam” aims to enhance weather forecasting through advanced tools like artificial intelligence, machine learning, and expanded observation networks. The initiative includes increasing the number of radars and satellites to improve the accuracy of localized forecasts.
Private Sector Contributions
Private weather forecasting companies like Skymet have also contributed to localized monsoon predictions. In 2025, Skymet forecasted a normal monsoon with 103% rainfall, noting that La Niña conditions were weak and brief, and El Niño was unlikely to occur.
Policy and Governance Implications
Need for Decentralized Planning: The variability in monsoon patterns necessitates decentralized planning and localized decision-making. District and tehsil-level authorities should be equipped with accurate, localized data to make informed decisions regarding agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.
Integration with Agricultural Practices
Localized monsoon information can inform agricultural practices such as crop selection, sowing dates, and irrigation planning. This integration can enhance resilience against climate-induced variability and improve food security.
Conclusion
As climate change continues to impact monsoon patterns, the importance of localized and actionable monsoon information cannot be overstated. By leveraging technological advancements and promoting decentralized planning, India can better prepare for and adapt to the challenges posed by monsoon variability. Such efforts are essential to safeguard the nation’s agriculture, water resources, and overall economic stability.
UPSC Mains GS paper-style questions based on the topic: “Monsoon information needs to be localized and applicable within the framework of India.”
Question 1: “Discuss the need for localizing monsoon information in India and its implications for agriculture, disaster management, and policy-making.” (250 words)
Question 2: “How can India strengthen its institutional and technological capabilities to generate localized and actionable monsoon forecasts? Suggest a strategic roadmap.” (250 words)