India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty following the Pahalgam attack, citing inequitable water distribution and the effects of climate change, and there are currently no plans for its reinstatement
- Division of Rivers: It grants India exclusive control over the Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) and their tributaries. Pakistan has exclusive rights over the Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).
- India’s Limited Rights: While the Western rivers are allocated to Pakistan, the treaty allows India limited, “non-consumptive” use for domestic purposes, agriculture, and, crucially, Run-of-the-River (RoR) hydroelectric projects, subject to specific design criteria.
- Dispute Resolution Mechanism: It established a three-tiered mechanism: resolving “questions” through the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC), escalating to a “Neutral Expert” for “differences,” and finally, a “Court of Arbitration” (CoA) for “disputes.”
- Diverging Approaches: Pakistan has repeatedly objected to the design of these RoR projects, alleging they violate the treaty. It has insisted on referring the matter to a Court of Arbitration. India, conversely, argues that the disagreements are technical and should be addressed by a Neutral Expert, as per the treaty’s graded mechanism.
- Weaponisation of the Treaty: From India’s perspective, Pakistan’s “maximalist” stance of invoking the highest level of arbitration for every technical issue is a strategy to stall legitimate infrastructure development. This has led to the current impasse, where the World Bank has paused both parallel processes (Neutral Expert and CoA), rendering the mechanism ineffective.
- India’s Call for Modification: India’s notice under Article XII(3) is a direct consequence of this deadlock. It argues that Pakistan’s intransigence has made the treaty’s provisions unworkable, necessitating a renegotiation to ensure its effective implementation.
- Climate Change: The treaty is based on historical water flow data, which is rapidly becoming obsolete. Increased glacial melt, erratic monsoon patterns, and the rising frequency of floods and droughts are altering the entire hydrology of the Indus basin. The IWT lacks provisions for climate adaptation, joint monitoring of glacial melt, or managing environmental flows.
- Growing Water Stress: Both India and Pakistan are among the world’s most water-stressed countries. Burgeoning populations, rapid urbanization, and agricultural demands are placing immense pressure on the finite water resources of the basin, intensifying the competition over every drop.
- Technological and Ecological Considerations: Modern water management requires a holistic basin-wide approach, incorporating advanced data sharing, satellite monitoring, and maintaining ecological sustainability. The IWT’s rigid, river-specific allocation model is ill-suited for such integrated management.
- Immediate Bilateral Dialogue: Both nations must engage in sincere talks to resolve the procedural deadlock over the dispute resolution mechanism, restoring faith in the treaty’s foundational principles.
- Modernising the Treaty: The IWT needs to be updated to incorporate provisions for climate change, mandating the exchange of scientific data on glacial melt and river flows, and establishing protocols for joint management of floods and droughts.
- Focus on Water Conservation: Instead of focusing solely on allocation, the dialogue should expand to include cooperation on water-use efficiency, advanced irrigation techniques, and managing non-point source pollution.
